Purpose
An index for my memory
A menu of topics for my next conversation with you
A faster way to share what I’m excited about without the barrier of writing a complete blog entry on it
A skimmable way to spread content I found valuable
Experiments and experiences
Trip to paradise
For the 4th of July weekend, we drove up to Paradise, CA to stay in an Airbnb tiny house on a farm. Euda got to meet sheep, alpaca, cows, cats, and chickens. For added fun, it was 100℉ every day, and Diana and I were both sick. To hide from the heat, we went to a swimming hole where we met some locals and put Euda in the cold river. Later, we visited Chico Children's Museum. There wasn't a lot to do there, but Euda loved it anyway. She stole some other kids' toys, learned dinosaur and synapsid names (dimetrodon, plesiosaurus, pachycephalosaurus, etc), crawled through tunnels and touched colorful lights. Being a dad is getting more fun every day.
New year's goals midpoint check in, scored 🔴 to 🟢
🟢 Become eng director OR become floating staff eng
🟢 Baby still alive
🟢 Find a good rhythm with parents + child care
🟡 Exercise 7d/w, 30-60 min workout 3d/w
🟡 Get back into climbing
🟠 Read books instead of scrolling media
Continuing to iterate on anti-depressants
Duloxetine was giving me night sweats. I tried combatting the sweats with benztropine, but it wasn't very effective. I took two weeks off everything and sleep improved, but mood deteriorated. Inspired by my low dose of duloxetine, I recently started a half dose (50 mg) of sertraline. Seems better so far! Instead of eventually escalating to 100 mg, let's see if this level is sustainable.
Wow, looks like overly high doses might be systemic. Of course, later in the same post Scott casts doubt on the study suggesting dosages are too high. But certainly titration is important.
Turns out there are some specific guidelines on switching between different anti-depressants.
A friend compiled all my anti-depressant updates! Very helpful for me too. Edited to always use the generic names.
Good perspective on SSRI's "low effect size" -- they're about as effective as NSAIDs like ibuprofen, which I definitely trust for a headache. They've just gotten a bad rap.
Life updates
📚 Started reading Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids
📖 Almost done reading Good Strategy Bad Strategy
🔒 Released Anthropic Trust Portal
🦷 Baby's first tooth
Content
5 point Likert ratings for “I would recommend this content to a friend”, sorted
Superforecasting 4/5
When making forecasts, it's important to make them specific enough that you can actually grade them. Vague language like "significant effect" is useless.
Avoid groupthink with active red-teaming
Per auftragstaktik, push autonomy to the leaves of the organization when possible
Claude's summary:
Superforecasters tend to be intelligent, open-minded critical thinkers who are numerate and pay close attention to probability and statistics.
They update their beliefs frequently as new evidence comes in, making incremental adjustments rather than sticking rigidly to previous opinions.
They synthesize information from many sources and perspectives, gathering as much high-quality data as possible.
They think in terms of probabilities and incorporate complexity and uncertainty into their forecasts.
They are self-critical, introspective and actively work to improve their forecasting skills.
They tend to work well in teams, benefiting from cognitive diversity while avoiding partisan positions.
Boss Baby 4/5
If you haven't seen Glengarry Glen Ross, you can't fully appreciate the comedy of this movie. While the plot is fairly predictable, the world building, playfulness, and character design are worth excellent.
Once again, too much family drama. But still fun space stuff, and interesting management lessons.
Black Mirror S6 2/5
First episode was 4/5. Loved the recursion and the "yes this is what the character would actually do in this situation."
But the others were too depressing